Fantasy Movie League

Alicia Vikander takes over for Angelina Jolie as Lara Croft

Last week I said the battle for the top of the Box Office would be between Black Panther and Oprah, who headlined A Wrinkle in Time. Turns out, it wasn’t much of a battle.

I went with Black Panther, Game Night x3 as an anchor, which wasn’t a bad choice. The problem was that Strangers: Prey at Night was the Best Value, so a cineplex of that film x7 and Game Night was the Perfect Option thanks to all the bonuses. That brought in $99.7 million (with $19 million in bonuses), while I brought in $73.4 million.

Black Panther has topped the Box Office for four weeks in a row and, you know what, I think it will be at least five. Tomb Raider opens this weekend, and is one of four new entries at the Box Office and in the game, but I don’t think the King of Wakanda is yet ready to give up the throne.

The third new release is I Can Only Imagine, a religious-themed film that seems ideally timed for the Lenten season. If you attend a contemporary Christian worship service, or listen to contemporary Christian music, you’ve heard the song. This film tells the story behind the song, and the artist. It doesn’t have a critical score, and it’s a relatively low-priced option at $41 FML Bucks. That coincides with modest projections. Fantasy Movie League calls for $2.8 million, and barely in the top 10. However, Box Office Pro and Box Office Report see it around fifth at the Box Office. Box Office Pro projects $6 million, while Box Office Report calls for $8.5 million. That makes it an incredible option for Best Value.

I think it’s clear that I Can Only Imagine is an excellent candidate for being the Best Value with bonus. That gives you a lot of flexibility considering that it’s only $41 FML Bucks. So what do you do at anchor? Black Panther is $391 FML Bucks, not much off of Tomb Raider, but it has much stronger projections. While Fantasy Movie League called for only $25.7 million, Box Office Pro calls for $29 million and Box Office Report calls for $27 million. With those numbers, it will likely top the Box Office and could have some Best Value appeal of its own.

Again, as mentioned above, I think a sleeper choice could be Love, Simon, which has an appealing cast and premise. It’s also gotten quite a push from shows in that demographic (the March 7 episode of Riverdale was all about a group of characters going to see the movie.) Those kind of marketing strategies can yield returns that are hard to predict via traditional metrics.

I’m leaving a lot of money on the table, but I love the I Can Only Imagine Option, so I’m going to bank on the bonuses.

Black Panther
Love, Simon
I Can Only Imagine x6

That’s it for this week. Disagree, have a comment, want to share your process with the world? Hit me up at fantasylifeappblog@gmail.com or on Twitter @Knighthawk7734

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